The Next 50 Years of Cinema

April 5, 2014, NAB, Las Vegas—Chris Cookson from Innovative Technologies talked about the possibilities for cinema in the future. The rapidly changing technology landscape is opening many avenues for filmmakers to apply their craft in new ways.

Before starting on prognosticating, Cookson reviewed the past 50 years. In ’64 there were many changes happening, and over time some of these changes were not really very different from earlier capabilities. Stories are created from ideas and the actors bring the characters to life. For example, in “Lawrence of Arabia” they had to use hundreds of horses and camels to populate the desert scenes.

Now, no one would try to get that many animals, but would just have a couple of engineers create the CGI. This creative space needs a master storyteller to bring all the elements together. The storyteller function has existed since people were able to speak, but now the process uses very different technologies. Thus, we have to consider what is cinema. Is it a shared and immersive experience, or is it intimate, small, and convenient?

These statements show the definition of cinema is changing for all functions and has no fixed end target, the essence is the ability of a storyteller to put ideas on any canvas. Some current trends for cinema are for displays to get larger with higher dynamic range, wider color gamut, and brighter. Eventually, displays will be as good as holograms and will provide a viewing experience of an Imax on steroids.

The same progressions will also occur in the sound for those movies. We will go from the 5.1 or 7.1 surround to a fully encompassing 3-D sound field. This combination of display and sound will enable an ultra-realistic assembly of light and sound, if the director intends this effect. The ability to synthesize sounds and images which don’t exist in real life will be available for the story and the storyteller’s ideas.

Although the holodeck is a story construct for Star Trek, prototypes of this technology are emerging. The choices of technology are now becoming a function of the possible business and financial models. This technology is viable for small audiences, since the available active space is about the size of a flight simulator. Alternative technologies include head-mounted displays like the Oculus Rift. This type of device that integrates head tracking can rival an actual space.

The far future head-mounted displays will have to be much lighter and smaller than the existing devices, which should be no problem. Anything electronic will always shrink until the human interface becomes the limiting factor. The same can be said for the accuracy and performance of the sensors and user interface and software. The capabilities of current render devices is already sufficient for these functions.

How will the storytellers use technology and tools to create their visions? The possibilities will be from some type of image capture or just from data and models. Cameras will have very high dynamic range, high resolution, and wide color gamut, all possibly greater than the normal human eye. The continuing challenge will be to capture the images and get them through the lenses, to the sensors, and out to the processing systems. The balance of the functions will be a part of production and post.

The camera will become a data acquisition device to meet the imaging requirements. The image capture may be based on lightfields and computational imaging. The cameras may be linked arrays of sensors to achieve the HDR, and wide color spectrum that viewers will be demanding which will place them into the story.

The video-centric pipeline is being replaced by IT functions. The investments in technology will have to include long-range extensions of big data and compute. The good news is that most of the IT cost trends have been dropping. In ’64, a MB of storage cost over $3 M. Today it costs $0.01, and in the next 50 years, the costs should continue to drop, although probably not as fast as in the past. Similar cost reductions have happened in computers, going from millions of dollars to less that $0.10.

New tools to manipulate optical characteristics can lead to interactive stories. These interactive stories will not be like gaming where the player determines the action, but movies will allow for audience input that is controlled by the storyteller. The result will be a well told, good, linear story.

The directors will have to figure out how to harness the massive combinations of computers, software, and networks to enhance their stories. The story teas are highly likely to be widely dispersed, which is a challenge for the creative process. The story ideas will evolve at the pace of the imagination, but the communications lags will be a drag on those ideas. Ultimately, the directors will want a real-time view of today’s work.

Cinema will become more engaging with the newer technologies, as we have seen from previous technology changes, like sound and color. The driving and defining elements for the next half century will be how the next, next generation tools will make for much smoother workflows. The existing networks of creative producers will be able to collaborate through multiple levels of connectivity.

One of the social uses of technology will be to change expectations. One example of technological changes driving new modes of behavior is in gaming. The game developer use similar tools as the cinema makers, and some of the tools will cross over to cinema creation. In 50 years, we might see direct brain to output capabilities that are related to today’s reaction-based stories in games.

Cinema has always been a place where a storyteller places ideas in front of an audience. The job of technology is to make the technology disappear so the storyteller can focus on creating the story, and not the technology. People will change, and so will their expectations, especially in younger people. Expect to see increases and improvements in on-line collaboration with applications becoming the basis for other work functions.

These changes will not really change the TV experience. TV will change, but most of the content will still be stories. Adding new technologies will eventually be integrated into the story process, but the storyteller will still be the key. The storyteller will not be replaced by a computer, since it will always take a person for empathy. Machines might make some stories, but humans will always be involved with cinema as art.