Five Technologies to Watch

October 15, 2012, CEA Industry Forum, San Francisco—Jeff Joseph moderated a panel on technology trends. Panel members were Rachel Metz from Technology Review, Scott Steinburg from TechSavvy Global, and Shawn DuBravac from CEA.

Five trends and reviews of winning technologies?
Metz offered 4K TV and any video functions beyond HD.
Steinberg suggested technology in education, and continuing education beyond K-12. Educational technologies are appearing before younger people all the time.
DuBravac considered 3-D printing moving into every home. The challenge and benefit will be teaching more people how to program systems.

Next generation TV?
Steinberg commented that resolution is not enough. Next-generation televisions will need connectivity and new interfaces like motion control. The TV system needs a digital command center that is simple to operate, like an app, etc. The studios need to rethink prepackaged and over the air content, since these are all for first generation TV.
Metz said that the first type of content for next-generation televisions will be movies, not just for in-home use but also for commercial use before home release.

Content?
DuBravac concluded that some 4K content will come from storefronts will others will be prepackaged in-home movies. People will Up-Convert from BluRay for their large displays.

Do we need native 4K, or will other formats be good enough?
Dubravac stated that good enough will be sufficient at the start, but tolerance for quality will change over time.
Metz agreed that good enough will suffice. Over time, native 4K will dominate. People will create 4K content.
Steinberg objected that we will need native content, because engagement requires quality. Initial content will be special events like sports, concerts, etc. Content will come after these tent-pole events start, but the whole situation is a chicken -egg first issue.

Lessons learned from 3-D rollout?
DuBravac noted that the key issue in adopting any technology is that adoption follows an s-shaped curve. The first 5 to 10 percent penetration is slow and takes about five or six years. Adoption accelerates once consumers become familiar with technology and prices drop. Any emerging technology must have realistic expectations about potential growth.
Metz chimed in that 3-D is not necessary to watch TV. There is no compelling reason to adopt 3-D technologies, so it’s a specialized use case. In comparison, 4K is visually better due to its higher resolution.
Steinberg added that 3-D is good, but 2-D was not broken. It’s hard to get people to change for very little benefit, and 3-D calls for a different type of content. In 4K however, people can see the difference, especially on larger screens.

Size?
DuBravac suggested that consumers are moving up to larger size screens, 84 inches and more. The manufacturers and costs are the drivers, and one alternative to a single large screen will be to tile bezel-less displays, so the 42 inch screen might become a building block.
Steinberg agreed that it fits into the apartment at under $1000, the large size screens will take off.

Price point for 4K?
Dubravac opined that people will be comfortable with a price between $1-3 thousand, and some reason to upgrade. A small segment of consumers will be okay with much higher prices. In ’05-’07, people will start to upgrade to larger displays, and by ’14 or ’15 will see the next bump in purchases if the prices are okay.

Prices flattening out?
Steinberg said by ’14 or ’15 prices may be down enough, but a new purchase for a 4K display will involve more than just size but will require other functions such as more apps, other vacations functions, etc.
Metz agreed that a $1,000 price will not support increased adoption rates. The displays will need much better performance and apps, because the resolution increase is not enough.
Dubravac said it will probably be a struggle. The reason is that resolution is not a consumer driver. We already have large size displays, with connectivity, with apps, but we will need to have content that will look better on the large screens.

3-D printing?
DuBravac said that this technology will enable mass experimentation and expose many people to design and programming. These experiences will drive raw experimentation just because someone can tinker.
Metz opined that this is a killer app.
Steinberg objected because there are no standards for the printers so people can just download templates. 3-D printing will require a lot of user generated content, and this crowd sourcing will be good for the industry. Most people are not interested in creating the various objects, but want to make something to consume.
Dubravac and join that crowd sourcing will bring in an incremental change to the industry.

Commercial applications through crowd design for retail?
Steinberg suggested that this will not become a major source of disruption. People will try to program, build prototypes, and make customized action figures. These are all low-volume specialized applications.

Retailers?
Metz considered that this might be interesting for customized products and low-cost customization.
Dubravac agreed and offered another scenario where people could print out their own custom products by renting time on a 3-D printer at a retail outlet.

Intellectual property issues?
Steinberg responded that there are realistically probable with crowd sourcing. Within certain boundaries people can do almost anything and then color between the lines.
Metz chirped creative commons.
DuBravac answered that sharing will lead to someone eventually selling a complete design, so there are many possible monetization models. This is a case of consumer driven versus manufacture and market driven markets.

Mobile success in Africa and mobile payments?
Steinberg said it works, the demand exists but the technology needs a context. The mobile payments technology will not migrate across the world for some time.

Mobile payments?
Metz responded that the monetary system has entrenched platforms including cash, credit cards, and checks. Electronic payments will see slow adoption in the US because simplicity is not enough. Safety and security of payments through cards means there are no good reasons to change.
DuBravac added that the timing for major changes is critical. It’s too early to say if it will be successful, but a hybrid technology using mobile payment technology and a card swipe can lead to mobile to mobile payment systems.
Steinberg agreed that security and safety are uppermost in the minds of US consumers, because of news about breaches in many industries.

Education?
Steinberg said that apps are now in use in classrooms. Many schools are adopting parent-teacher portals for assignments and grading. Tablets are starting to show up in schools but most education systems are just at the tinker mode right now. Everyone likes tablets and the smaller sizes are well-suited for kids. Continuing education content and courses are showing up online.

Digital divide?
Steinberg offered that a generation of young people is growing up in a digital world. The challenges to provide the technologies to everyone and teach technology along with digital functions to the instructors so they can use these technologies in their classrooms.

Changes in behavior and new distractions?
DuBravac responded that children can benefit when teachers are able to customize learning environments. The problem with the digital divide is that many students do not have access to the technologies over the summer, so we need to develop capabilities for year-round learning. We also need to work more on developing technologies for the gamification of education.

Minimizing distractions?
Metz said that it’s good to give kids a tablet but they need to be directed to use them for schoolwork and projects. Information flow is augmented by connections to the Internet and network technologies improve the abilities for collaboration.
Steinberg added make education more interesting by making more of the content into games. What would a normal kid do when offered the choice between playing or reading a 300 page book? The distractions are not new, but are just illustrations of changes in technology. The digital divide is really an unsupervised time problem.

High-end audio?
DuBravac answered that manufactures need to demonstrate a value proposition, and enhanced user experience. Someone has to show consumers that buying this equipment will result in a worthwhile experience.
Metz commented that people forget what a high end quality experience can be. Consumers tend to prefer convenience and settle for good enough. Comfort, convenience, and availability are more important than quality.
Steinberg disagreed and is seeing changes. Now people are starting to become fashion conscious about their audio aesthetics.
Metz countered that Jam Box is good looking but only has mediocre sound.
Dubravac mention that quality of sound is a multi-faceted concept. The availability and capabilities of mobile devices, wireless, streaming, and sharing are important as part of a lifestyle. People will sacrifice quality for portability, but some features of high-end audio will return over time.

Internet radio?
Metz said it’s amazing, good and useful technology. There are some interesting business models being developed and overall, it’s good for the music industry.

Multipurpose touchscreens. People need to look and touch to change something, should we be looking for haptic feedback or a backlash against these interfaces?
Dubravac noted that the world is diverse. Some want the classic interfaces while others want multipurpose devices. There is no single winning technology, so people have to choose what fits them. Different devices are used at different times and in different ways, so voice, touch, and other interfaces are all viable
Steinberg commented that many people have a lifestyle that treasures reduced friction, and for these people touch is not preferred.